An increasing potential for hurricane Dorian is developing as it moves north of Porto Rico today. It is now a solid CAT 1 hurricane and gradually strengthening while moving NNW towards the Bahamas. Model trends are hinting at a  high possibility that Dorian becomes a major CAT 3 hurricane by Sunday, prior to its potential landfall on the eastern Florida coast on Monday.

Latest satellite imagery and animation:

 

Radar animation of the rapidly organizing hurricane Dorian while it ejected from the Virgin Islands yesterday.

 

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1166899465262915589

 

NOAA Hurricane Hunters are already scanning Dorian with recon aircraft these days, additional flights are expected until the landfall. We can nicely see how the wind field is much stronger across the NE and SE quadrants while Dorian is gaining strength.

EPS and NHC tracks seem to hit the best possible future path of Dorian, pushing it first NNW in the coming 48 hours before it turns more westerly towards landfall in Florida on Monday. The mark “M” suggests Dorian could indeed become a powerful major CAT 3 hurricane by late Saturday local time.

Looking at the GFS and HWRF models, one can see the potential track is still not well-defined and as always, it may change considerably prior to final landfall early next week. However, models are now in better agreement on developing a very strong / major hurricane. High-res models are even simulating low-end CAT 4 strength!

Various model intensity chart are revealing Dorian will likely gain CAT 2 strength in the next 24-48 hours and could intensify even into a CAT 3 over the weekend.

Simulated satellite image per HWRF model, revealing a large hurricane making landfall in E Florida on Monday. Indeed, still several days ahead, but model trends are quite good in the latest runs.

GFS model maps for accumulated rainfall and wind gusts along the path of hurricane Dorian. Flooding can be definitely expected for parts of Florida or even Georgia if the track turns more north.

Stay tuned for further updates in the coming days!