Outlook day 2 (valid: 21/11/2013)

VALID FOR 21-11-2013

A large deep upper trough centered over central Europe maintains its position with several embedded vorticity maxima rotating over Mediterranean. On the trough’s western flank, a very cold mid-levels spreading south from North Sea towards NW Mediterranean, while a surface low over N Sea gradually weakening while moving into France. A new surface low forms in the lee of the Alps over N Italy. A new potent trough with rapid cyclogenesis takes place N of Iceland.

A MDT risk has been issued for SE Adriatic sea into Montenegro and W Albania with threat for torrential excessive rain, severe winds and some tornado / hail threat. Locally very high rain amounts are possible.

A MDT risk has been issued for S Greece and W Crete into S Mediterranean with threat for tornadoes, severe winds, torrential excessive rain and large hail as a strong DCVA crosses southern Mediterranean.

A SLGT+ risk has been issued for N Italy with threat for excessive rain. Area will be monitored for possible upgrade into MDT risk on DAY 1 outlook.

A SLGT+ risk has been issued for southern Tyrrhenian sea into parts of S Italy with threat for torrential escessive rain and severe winds. Area will be monitored for possible upgrade into MDT risk on DAY 1 outlook.

A SLGT risk has been issued for surrounding the MDT/SLGT+ risk areas with threat for excessive rain, strong to severe winds and some tornado / waterspout and marginal hail threat.

A SLGT risk has been issued for parts of Iceland and areas further NNE with threat for severe non-convective winds.

A SLGT risk has been issued for Pyrenees with threat for excessive rainfall as strong N flow leads into orographic precipitation into the mountains.