Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ

SYNOPSIS

A short-wave trough pushes across the N Mediterranean, Alps and Germany while upper ridge persists across north, east and southeast Europe. A new deep trough with an intense surface cyclone develops over N Atlantic and pushes towards the British Isles and Ireland.

DISCUSSION


MDT risk has been issued for SW Ireland and seas towards SW with threat for extremely severe wind gusts in excess of 120-130 km/h. A significant windstorm will develop along with the rapidly moving deep cyclone from the Atlantic into the south British Isles.

ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for areas surrounding the MDT risk including S Ireland, SW England, Wales and parts of N Atlantic for severe to extremely severe winds, locally reaching 100-120 km/h.


SLGT risk has been issued for NE Germany, W Poland and W Czech Republic with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, marginally large hail and torrential rainfall along the diffuse frontal boundary. Relatively strong shear and moderate instability will support the development of organized storms in the mid/late afternoon hours.

SLGT risk has been issued for N Italy across N Adriatic into WSW Slovenia and NW Croatia with threat for severe storms along the cold front crossing in the afternoon and evening hours. Strong shear and marginal to locally moderate instability should become favorable for organized storms, including supercells with large hail, severe winds and torrential rainfall.

SLGT risk has been issued for W Ukraine, W Romania into E Hungary with threat for severe storms, capable of producing strong winds, torrential rainfall with flash floods and marginal hail with accumulation due to high instability under low shear environment.

MRGL risk has been issued surrounding the SLGT risks across N Mediterranean and N-CNTRL Balkan peninsula into W Ukraine with more isolated threat for severe storms, mainly capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and marginal hail.

MRGL risk has been issued for far E Ukraine into W Russia with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing strong winds, torrential rainfall with flash floods and marginal hail with accumulation.

TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.