Outlook day 1 (valid: 22/10/2013): UPDATED

VALID FOR 22-10-2013 – UPDATED

day1 map

An upgrade to MDT risk has been done over parts of eastern France into Benelux given the improved conditions for late afternoon severe storms development across the MDT risk area. Latest observations reveal moderately strong SSE winds over eastern France, advecting moisture further north under relatively clear skies. Additionally, latest model guidance reveals the environment with very strong shear (LL shear of 30-50 kt) and SR helicity (SREH3 of ~ 200-400 m2/s2) overlaping with moderate instability (MLCAPE 800-1200 J/kg), which enhanced threat for supercells capable of producing tornadoes and severe winds in late afternoon / evening hours. A strong tornado is not ruled out either.

PREVIOUS OUTLOOK VALID FOR 22-10-2013

A long-wave trough sitting over western Europe with two waves being focus for severe storms.

A SLGT risk has been issued for E France into Benelux and towards N Italy with threat for strong to severe winds, marginally large hail and some tornado threat. Heavy rain threat maximized closer to the Mediterranean.

A SLGT risk has been issued for southern UK and NW France into eastern Atlantic with threat for strong to severe winds, some heavy rain and marginally large hail. Good overlap with marginal instability and quite strong LL shear enhanced tornado threat as well.

A SLGT+ risk has been issued for W Iberia with threat for excessive rain and strong to severe winds.

A SLGT risk has been issued for SW Norway with threat for high rainfall accumulations.