Outlook DAY 1 (valid: 22/04/2019)
An upper ridge is centered over N Europe while trough develops into SW Europe. An upper low and surface cyclone over Algeria and W Mediterranean deepen. Upper low over the Middle East finally weakens while moving east. A new deep trough develops W of Iberia.
SLGT risk has been issued for parts of south-central Italy into Corsica and Tyrrhenian sea with threat for severe storms along the NE-wards moving frontal system. Moderate shear and improved instability will support organized storms with severe winds, marginal hail and torrential rainfall threats. SLGT risk has also been extended towards S Italy and Sicily where mostly severe non-convective wind threat exists, peak gusts should exceed 100 km/h locally.
MRGL risk has been issued for N Algeria into SW Mediterranean for isolated storms in the wake of the cyclone, a good overlap of instability and still quite some shear should support some organized storms, mainly with heavy rainfall and marginal hail threat with accumulations.
MRGL risk has been issued for north-central France with an isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, heavy rainfall and marginal hail with accumulations locally.
SLGT risk has been issued for NW Romania, E Slovakia into SE Poland and W Ukraine with threat for severe storms, capable of producing marginally large hail, torrential rainfall and severe winds. A quite strong shear and moderate several hundreds of MLCAPE should be enough for some organized storms near the cold core low.
TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.