Outlook day 1 (valid: 21/11/2013)

VALID FOR 21-11-2013

A large deep upper trough remains centered over central Europe while several embedded vorticity maxima rotating around its center. On the trough’s western flank, a very cold/deep mid-levels spreading south from North Sea towards NW Mediterranean, while a surface low over N Sea gradually weakening while moving into France. A new surface low forms in the lee of the Alps over N Italy. A new potent trough with rapid cyclogenesis takes place N of Iceland.

A MDT risk has been issued for Montenegro and W Albania with threat for torrential excessive rain, severe winds and some tornado and hail threat. Locally very high rain amounts are possible.

A MDT risk has been issued for S Greece and W Crete into S Mediterranean with threat for tornadoes, severe winds, torrential excessive rain and large hail as a strong DCVA crosses the southern Mediterranean during afternoon and night hours.

A SLGT+ risk has been issued for parts of N Italy with threat for excessive rain. It seems that again the highest amounts of rain are likely along the southern Alpine flank in NE Italy.

A SLGT risk has been issued for surrounding the MDT/SLGT+ risk areas with threat for excessive rain, strong to severe winds and some tornado / waterspout and marginal hail threat.

A SLGT risk has been issued for parts of Iceland and areas further NNE with threat for severe non-convective winds.

A SLGT risk has been issued for Pyrenees with threat for excessive rainfall as strong N flow leads into orographic precipitation into the mountains.

A WNTR risk has been issued for higher elevations of Pyrenees and southern Alps with threat for excessive snowfall.