Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ

SYNOPSIS

Strong upper ridge remains over E-CNTRL Europe with a weakening upper low over the E Mediterranean. Deep trough is located over the N Atlantic with a short-wave with an associated surface front pushed across France and Benelux and NW Germany.

DISCUSSION


ENH risk had been issued for NE France, Benelux across NW Germany into Denmark with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large hail. A moderately strong instability and shear overlap well within the risk area, becoming supportive of organized severe storms, including isolated supercells with locally very large hail possible. Storms should cluster into a larger system towards the evening hours, enhancing threat for severe damaging winds as well.

SLGT risk has been issued for areas surrounding the ENH risk across France, W/N Germany into N Spain and S Sweden with more isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and marginally large hail.


SLGT risk has been issued for Poland, E Czechia, Slovakia into W Ukraine and NE Hungary with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and marginally large hail. Scattered convective activity is expected under a moderately unstable but weakly sheared environment. Slow moving storms could locally produce hail accumulation and flash floods.


SLGT risk has been issued for S Finland into NW Russia with isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large hail.

SLGT risk has been issued for NE Algeria into N Tunisia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large hail.

TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.