Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ

SYNOPSIS

A large upper ridge dominates most of Europe while a deep upper low is located over S Iberia and Morocco. A large upper low over Turkey and the Middle East merges with a new trough coming from the north. Another deep trough with a deep cyclone moves north just W of Iceland.

DISCUSSION


SLGT risk has been issued for SE Spain with threat for excessive rainfall. A persisting advection of very moist airmass along the convergence zone should result in intense rainfall with sums above 100 mm locally. Flash floods are possible.


MRGL risk has been issued for NE France, NW Switzerland into SW Germany with isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential rainfall, marginal hail and severe winds.


MRGL risk has been issued for S Moldova, E Romania into E Bulgaria with isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential rainfall, marginal hail and severe winds.

MRGL risk has been issued for SE Turkey into Syria with isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential rainfall, marginal hail and severe winds.

TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.