Outlook DAY 1 (valid: 17/05/2019)
Upper ridge remains over N Europe while a large upper low with several short-waves is located over south-central Europe. One core moves across W Mediterranean, another one over Greece. A stationary surface front is extending across the ENE Europe.
MDT / ENH risks have been issued for N Romania and Moldova into W-CNTRL Ukraine, S-SW Belarus and E Poland with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall, large hail and tornadoes. Widespread convective activity is expected along the stationary front as favorable shear and helicity overlap with rather strong instability. With easterly flow to the east of the boundary, enhanced SREH would develop tornado threat as well.
ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for NW Turkey into SE Balkan peninsula with more isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large to very large hail and torrential rainfall.
SLGT risk has been issued for NW Mediterranean into Corsica and N Sardinia with isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall.
TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.