Outlook DAY 1 (valid: 15/07/2019)
Upper ridge over N Atlantic is weakening while a large trough persists across east-central Europe. An embedded deep low is located over the Ligurian bay, slowly drifting along the W Italian coast towards Sicily.
MDT / ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for Ligurian / Tyrrhenian seas and along the W coast of Italy into Sicily with threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential / excessive rainfall and tornadoes / waterspouts. Widespread convective activity will be ongoing within moderately unstable and sheared environment. Slow-moving storms are expected with locally flash floods threat as high-resolution models are hinting more than 100-150 mm of rainfall per 24 hour period. Waterspouts are also likely along the coasts.
SLGT risk has been issued for E Europe in W Russia with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing marginal hail and torrential rainfall as slow-moving storms within moderately unstable but weakly sheared environment are expected.
SLGT risk has been issued for NNE Turkey into Georgia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. A few organized storms are likely under moderately unstable airmass and shear.
TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.