VALID FOR 08-04-2018

SYNOPSIS

A ridge dominates east-central Europe where small weak upper low moves across Czech Republic into Poland. A large trough gradually transforming into an upper low over SW Europe and pushes into W Mediterranean. Another upper low remain almost stationary across S Turkey and SE Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

A SLGT risk has been issued for S Turkey and Middle east with threat for scattered severe storms capable of producing severe winds, torrrential rainfall and large hail. An almost stationary upper low remains over far east Mediterranean and results in marginal to moderate instability ahead and along the cold front pushed into Middle East. With moderate shear and good helicity in place, organized severe storms are likely from midday through afternoon and evening hours. A rather widespread convective activity is also likely across south-central Turkey through the daytime hours as cold mid-levels result is good instability. Despite being in weaker shear, threat for slow moving storms with torrential rainfall and marginal hail showers exists.

A SLGT risk has been issued for extreme NE Algeria, N Tunisia into Sicily with threat for severe storms capable of producing large hail, severe winds and torrential rainfall. A short wave trough rapidly moves across the risk area from west to east and pushes a surface cold front towards Italy. Marginal to moderate instability in moderately strong shear should support some organized storms mainly along the front, which could merge into small cluster or two across S Tyrrhenian sea and Sicily with time.

A MRGL risk has been issued for N Czech Republic into S Poland where some isolated severe storms with mainly marginal hail and strong to severe winds threat are possible in the afternoon hours.

TSTM risk areas have been placed where some convective potential exists, but storms should remain sub-severe.