VALID FOR 05-04-2018






SYNOPSIS

Dynamic weather pattern across Europe on Thursday, a short-wave moves across central Europe with a surface frontal system affecting N Mediterranean and Balkan peninsula. Further west, deep trough/cyclone is located across eastern Atlantic, while a strengthening ridge is spreading across WSW Europe. Large cyclone with cold weather remains across northern Europe.

DISCUSSION

A SLGT risk has been issued for parts of central Balkan peninsula including E-CNTRL Bosnia and S-CNTRL Serbia with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing marginally large hail, severe winds and torrential rainfall. Marginal to moderate instability will be available ahead of the approaching cold front within moderate deep-layer wind shear. Although the upper-level forcing will be rather strong and widespread shallow convection and precipitation seem likely, some better more discrete storms are expected in the afternoon into evening hours.

A MRGL risk has been issued for central Balkan peninsula for areas surrounding the SLGT risk area including parts of Croatia, N Serbia, S Hungary and W Romania with only isolated threat for some more organized storms during the cold front passage. Only weak instability available in moderately sheared environment; supports some marginal hail and strong winds threat.

A MRGL risk has been issued for E Slovakia into SE Poland, W Ukraine and SW Belarus with threat for isolated storms capable of producing marginal hail, heavy rainfall and strong to severe winds.

A MRGL risk has been issued for NE Morocco and NW Algeria with threat for isolated storms capable of producing marginal hail, heavy rainfall and strong to severe winds.