UPDATE 2: Sicily supercell thunderstorms – 11:10 UTC
Update #2 on the thunderstorm activity in Sicily. Satellite imagery is showing ongoing activity pushing south onshore Sicily. Relying on satellite images, radar images and surface data only, the leading part/updraft of this system is a supercell with additional embeded mesocylones trailing it.
Webcam images from San Vito Lo Capo are showing a possible striated mesocyclone (and possibly wall cloud in the first image), however, due to low image quality this conclusion cannot be definitive.
Webcams across northern Sicily are showing major thunderstorms coming onshore with heavy rainfall. A shelf cloud passed Palermo.
Conditions in this area are currently very conductive for explosive formation of supercells. A very sharp surface convergence is present north of Sicily ahead of the cold front. A 40-45 kt WSW mid level jet is present and E-SE backing surface winds. High CAPE is present in the area due to strong WAA with WRF models predicting 2000-3000 J/kg NW of Sicily. This area is part of the updated MDT risk area of Day 1 Outlook 11/10/2013 with main threats for heavy convective rain, large hail, severe winds and even tornadoes.