Severe storms over SW Turkey continue this afternoon – Oct 17, 13:45 UTC
An upper low over the southern Balkans is slowly moving across the Aegean sea towards Turkey where a sharp cold front is being pushed ahead of the surface low along the coastal areas of SSW Turkey. With the rather impressive satellite presentation and SFC observations lately, both multicellular and supercellular storm modes are likely forming along the front, given the favourable moderately strong shear and high instability overlaping over the region. Storms are accompanied by intense rainfall, strong / severe winds and even tornadoes cannot be ruled out with the most severe storm cells. 80mm of rain in only 5 hours (03:00 – 08:00 UTC) has been reported during frontal/intense storm passsage over eastern Rhodes island, while wind gusts between 70-90 km/h have been reported so far as well. Expect this threat to continue further along the eastward moving frontal boundary.
Additionally, with the very cold mid-level temperatures overspreading the Aegean sea in the wake of the upper low, waterspouts seem possible over these areas. Wind field close to the center low is weak and low-level instability with steep lapse rates will be in place.
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