The first substantial severe weather of 2019 is expected across the southeast US on Saturday, Feb 23rd

The first substantial severe risk of 2019 for the US is taking shape this coming Saturday. Large hail, severe straight line winds and also tornadoes will be possible as storms develop along the sharp cold front. The front is associated with the deep cyclone moving across the Great Plains and Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an ENH (enhanced) risk for severe storms, with 30% hatched area (= 10% or greater probability of severe weather) across the eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi into western Kentucky and Tennessee. A SLGT risk has been placed surrounding the ENH risk area. Very extreme deep-layer shear will be available, likely 80-100 knots in the 0-6 km layer! Despite the rather low instability (500-1000 … Continue reading The first substantial severe weather of 2019 is expected across the southeast US on Saturday, Feb 23rd