Mesoscale Discussion #009 (valid 23/05/2014 13-21 UTC)

Mesoscale Discussion #009 (valid 23/05/2014 15-21 UTC)

Several intense thunderstorms have developed in the MDT risk area over the Czech Republic with new TCU developing further north. Latest sfc data show dewpoints at 15-17 °C and temperatures of 25-30 °C ahead of the storms. Strong 10-20 kt backing southeasterly winds are present. Up to about 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is avabilable, overlapping with a strongly sheared environment with 30-50 kt DLS and up to ~150 m2/s2 SREH3, favourable for rotating updrafts. Main threats with these storms include heavy rainfall and and marginally large hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out either, although current conditions are not particularly supportive. Storm coverage is expected to increase northward as the afternoon progresses.