Mesoscale Discussion #006 (valid 20/05/2014 13-21 UTC)

Mesoscale Discussion #006 (valid 20/05/2014 13-21 UTC)

Numerous TCUs are forming across the SLGT/MDT risk area over E-NE Europe as of 12 UTC. Latest SYNOP/METAR data reveals surface temperatures in the 27-30 °C and dewpoints between 14 and 16 °C across Belarus and Baltic states. Backing SE-E winds at 10 to 15 kts are present over the entire region. Moderate to high instability in the 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE range overlaps with a moderately sheared environment with 20-30 kt DLS. Moderately favourable veering vertical profiles provide 100-175 m2/s2 SREH3. Thus the environment is supportive for organized multicells and some supercell thunderstorms. Main threats include large hail, strong rainfall and locally strong wind gusts. Tornado threat is lower today than in the previous days, although tornadoes cannot be ruled out in central Belarus and eastern parts of the Baltic states when storms interact with any residual outflow boundaries from last night storm clusters.