Global models are now in very good agreement about the cold weather through second half of January, the results of Polar Vortex split earlier this months are coming into effect for the lower troposphere. Cold winter weather should spread across the western half of Europe as a favorable pattern establishes after this weekend. Ridge over the northwest Atlantic with deep troughs across western towards southwestern Europe should bring both very cold and snowy weather locally.

The first event will be a cyclone passage across the UK and Ireland this Friday, arriving just a day after the cold outbreak across the region. Despite the quite strong warm advection associated with the frontal system, the airmass should remain quite cold!

Models are therefore hinting at some snow through Thursday night over parts of Ireland while some additional chances for Scotland and England come on Friday afternoon during the front passage.

The pattern next week continues with very dynamic systems – on Sunday a trough develops over the western Europe and brings more cold weather across western, central and southwestern Europe. Towards the middle of the week, the upper ridge over the Atlantic strengthen,s but retreats towards the North American continent which will allow more strong cold advection into western Europe. As a result, a trough then strengthens / deepens and moves further into the southwest Europe.

Very cold airmass should then maintain through most of the week while also reaching Iberian peninusula, western Mediterranean and even North Africa again.

Probability of falling snow map indicates quite high chances for snow across parts of the Iberian peninsula, south-central France and also the United Kingdom through the middle of next week. Additionally, a new chance for snow seems possible for the Balkan peninsula as cold advection also spreads into the Mediterranean where secondary cyclogenesis will likely take place.

The overall pattern suggests a pretty dynamic period through the rest of this month for a large part of our continent. Cold weather will finally spread across the western half of Europe. This has been confirmed by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble models.

Even after the next week, GEFS model is suggesting cold weather could continue across a large part of Europe. More details will be added next week we have better model trends for the end of January.

Stay further for additional updates on the system evolution.

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Severe Weather Europe – Calendar 2019