Evening model runs confirm the increasing potential for an intense landfall of hurricane Leslie in southern Portugal early Sunday morning. While there are still some uncertainties regarding the exact path in the final 36 hours, models agree on severe wind potential of the system.

 

Here is the latest ICON-EU model guidance based on 12 UTC run, indicating very dangerous, extremely severe wind gusts possible at landfall – even in excess of 200 km/h! This would undoubtedly mean devastating winds for parts of southern Portugal.

 

ICON-EU sustained 10 m wind speed forecast valid for Saturday, 23Z. Produced by Andrej Flis (@Recretos TW)

 

There is quite a difference between the forecast sustained wind speed and the maximum forecast wind gusts. This forecast should be taken with some reserve since the ratio between the sustained winds and wind gusts is abnormally high for a model forecast. Later multi-model runs will be used to asses the validity of this forecast.

 

ICON-EU peak 10 m wind gusts forecast valid for Sunday, 00Z. Produced by Andrej Flis (@Recretos TW)

ICON-EU peak 10 m wind gusts forecast valid for Saturday, 23Z. Produced by Andrej Flis (@Recretos TW)

 

The map below shows sea-level pressure anomaly across southern Europe, where hurricane Leslie shows a strong negative anomaly down to 30mb below the long term mean. Further towards east, we have a strong and persistent high pressure area, which creates warm and stable weather conditions across the region.

 

ICON-EU sea-level pressure anomaly forecast. Produced by Andrej Flis (@Recretos TW)

 

Stay tuned for further updates once the hurricane Leslie nears Iberian peninsula tomorrow.