Follow up on the heat wave – Monday July 31st, 2017

A blocking pattern dominates eastern half of Europe where an intensifying heat wave was spreading from SSW into central Europe past weekend. Yesterday’s max afternoon temps were locally already exceeding 35°C and even higher can be expected today. Here are peak afternoon temps across Iberian peninsula, Italy, central Europe countries and S Balkan countries yesterday – locally above 33-38 °C (e.g. S Greece, W Turkey central Balkan peninsula) with SSE Spain again up to 42 °C in some places!

Europe is actually divided in two halfs with much cooler temps across W Europe and hot weather further ESE with deep trough over W Europe and an intense ridge over ESE Europe. These two maps reveal the still strengthening ridge with 850 mb temperature’s 20 °C isotherm continuing advecting across the Alpine area onto N Balkans today, this will push temps even higher than yesterday.

This afternoon’s temps should rise into upper 30s across parts of Italy, central Balkan peninsula and parts of S France. Max temps in Spain should mostly remain below 40 °C as some cooler temps aloft will overspread the Iberian peninsula and ridge pushed more to the east.

The more extreme heat is expected tomorrow, when temps could hit the 40 °C treshold over parts of N Italian plains tomorrow, locally up to 42 °C seem reasonable given the additional warming aloft.

Latest GFS model trends for the next 10 days – now it appears quite likely that this heat wave will be very long and could extend well into next week, lasting up to 10 days without a break in between as models were hinting in previous days. However, active severe weather is expected on the western flank of the ridge (France, Germany).

Stay tuned for further follow ups & updates soon!