In an interesting development on the likely Medicane towards the end of the week, the latest (12 UTC) ARPEGE model run indicates and even stronger cyclone than previous model runs.

The latest ARPEGE model run indicates maximum sustained winds near 140 km/h and gusts approaching 190 km/h.

Vertical cross section across the Medicane on September 29, 06Z (06h UTC). Peak winds of well over 140 km/h at 1000 to 800 mbar level (surface to approximately 2 km).

Maximum sustained winds at 950 mbar level (approximately 500 m high). Valid September 29, 06Z.

Total accumulated rainfall through September 29, 09Z.

Maximum wind gusts at 10 m (surface) level. Valid September 29, 09Z.

Maximum wind gusts at 10 m (surface) level. Valid September 29, 12Z.

Maximum wind gusts at 10 m (surface) level. Valid September 29, 12Z.

Maximum wind gusts at 10 m (surface) level. ICON-EU model guidance. Valid September 30, 00Z.

All maps created by co-admin Andrej Flis.